[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N57W TO 10N55W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS.
THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOW SOME DRY AIR SPREADING
OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION. THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 10N24W 10N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
STARTS NEAR 10N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N38W TO 12N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N E
OF 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 29W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT
SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
25N89W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W
28N85W 28N89W...GENERATING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N-28N. ANOTHER
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W TO 18N93W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TROUGHINESS OVER THE SE AND SW
GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...VERY DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN
OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION. TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE WINDS OF 5-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE
IN THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-83W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL AS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SHEAR PERSISTS WITHIN ITS EXPECTED PATH.

HISPANIOLA...
IN THE UPPER LEVEL...THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS SUPPORTING LOW VALUES OF WIND SHEAR OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE S OF THE HISPANIOLA WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ARE
LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 30N77W 30N72W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N71W TO 25N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N W OF 68W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N58W TO 20N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS N OF 23N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH HAS BEEN SPOTTED JUST W OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N45W TO 11N45W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 44W-47W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER SUPPORTED BY LOWER-MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net