[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
23N49W AND 27N48W. THIS TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND THE 25N56W 23N57W 21N58W SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND
58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN
40W AND 61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 13N21W 12N27W AND 9N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N37W
TO 9N41W 11N47W AND 12N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 24W...AND
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR 20N96W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W
AND 98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO
THE COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 92W BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER WITH
MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 92W AND 98W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES...AND IT SPANS THE REST OF THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN EAST TEXAS.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W. THE LOW
PRESSURE IS RELATED TO THE INLAND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM GEORGIA WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N82W IN FLORIDA...28N86W...29N89W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W COVERING
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF 92W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N91W...TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT
IS NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDER COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND NEARBY RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 22N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N74W
EVENTUALLY TO 11N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W...AND IN PUERTO RICO IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA
TO 9N80W IN COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA/SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS PANAMA FROM 80W WESTWARD.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W...FROM 12N
TO 13N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NEAR EASTERN EL SALVADOR.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 22N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N74W
EVENTUALLY TO 11N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W...AND IN PUERTO RICO IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
STARTS ON TOP OF CENTRAL CUBA. HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE ON TOP OF THE AREA AS THE RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD...AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS
FORECAST SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA ONLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE UNDER OR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...UNTIL A RIDGE
STARTS TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE COVERED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N72W TO
30N70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS WIND FLOW
CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
30N75W BEYOND COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 28N76W TO THE WATERS THAT ARE NEAR THE
NORTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 29N.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N50W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N49W AND 27N48W. THIS TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF THE 19N54W 14N56W 10N56W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE
25N56W 23N57W 21N58W SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N37W TO 32N50W 29N58W...BEYOND THE SOUTHERN PART OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
22N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net