[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE STANDS
OUT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N58W 21N52W 19N44W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 59W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 10N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N31W TO 9N36W 10N44W
AND 7N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 11N15W 10N27W 11N33W 8N39W 8N47W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 8N47W 6N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND IT
SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
EAST TEXAS.

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND...ALONG 32N/33N FROM
GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. SCATTERED STRONG
IS INLAND FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND IN LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO
THE WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 27N80W TO 26N81W INLAND.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N88W...TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS NEAR 20N97W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED AT BAY CITY TEXAS. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE
IN LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA...AND AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN GENERAL AIRPORT.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED FROM THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN PENSACOLA TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR
MILTON IN FLORIDA. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE
TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE IN PANAMA CITY. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
REPORTED IN FORT MYERS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED FROM
ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER TO TAMPA...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KEMK
AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 42W/43W TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 17N80W 14N72W 14N70W...AND TO THE EAST OF
70W.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 80W IN PANAMA...TO 14N86W ALONG THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...TO 18N91W IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATER FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
NICARAGUA...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W IN HONDURAS...
AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W IN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND
84W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA BETWEEN 81W
AND 82W...IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W AND FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 10 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH A 21N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSING
HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W...
EVENTUALLY TO 14N72W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS NOW ARE IN
HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED EARLIER IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W...AND IT
HAS SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE 42W/43W TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 48
HOURS. THE CENTER WILL START NEAR 23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS...AND IT
WILL END UP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HISPANIOLA WILL
END UP IN THE MIDDLE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH BY THE END OF
48 HOURS. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 700 MB
FORECAST. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA ABOUT 12 HOURS EARLIER. THE 250 MB
GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE COVERED BY CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 30N74W AND 28N77W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 28N73W 26N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N76W 24N81W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N49W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N55W...TO A 21N69W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W...EVENTUALLY TO 14N72W. LINGERING
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N64W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 32N43W...BEYOND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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