[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN AT 03/2100 UTC IS
NEAR 31.7N 77.7W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 77W-79W. THE REMNANT LOW OF DORIAN IS FORECAST TO BE
DISSIPATED IN 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W
TO 10N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS ALONG 40W FROM 24N TO 19N...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS COMING FROM THE
MID LATITUDES AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN 18 HOURS. THE MERGED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N25W 08N35W
07N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 06N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 15W-29W...AND FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-39W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 42W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 90W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 32N97W
PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1019 MB
SURFACE HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ALSO EXPECT
THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO MOVE W...AND MORE
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. FURTHER
S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO N NICARAGUA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN. ALSO AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST HAS
REACHED TO 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN IS ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N62W.
ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N28W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF
70W. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 30W-45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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