[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 031431
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW
CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS
ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN
THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 30.6N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 32.1N  77.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1200Z 34.0N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 37.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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