[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 79.2W AT
03/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MOVING
N AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 78W-81W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 19N31W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N30W.
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST...NO
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N94W TO 21N95W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AREA OF GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG 95W
MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WHILE
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
17N16W TO 17N21W TO 11N29W TO 08N37W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN
29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEAR 33N101W AND IS PROVIDING THE
GULF WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES IT REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE WITH MOISTURE NOTED
GENERALLY S OF 25N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF 21N ALONG
95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 24N.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N84W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH E OF 84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAILING W OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NEAR 20N84W THAT IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 78W-85W. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 13N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 79W-85W...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD N OF 16N E OF 85W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 75W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 17N E OF 66W...AND ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF
68W. OTHERWISE...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO SPREAD
WESTWARD REACHING 76W.

HISPANIOLA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN IS CENTERED OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 78W-81W.
FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N56W AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AZORES NEAR 35N28W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING...
A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. THE AIR LAYER HAS
PROGRESSED TO 76W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net