[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 28N78W
BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND S FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N81W MOVING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER SE FLORIDA ON FRI AND SAT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 23N22W
THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N23W TO 11N23W MOVING W 5 TO
10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITH A DENSE LAYER OF DRY SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N GUATEMALA MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS
MOST OF THE GULF AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ILL-DEFINED WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 22N17W AND CONTINUES THROUGH A THE 1011 MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N21W THEN ALONG 10N30W
TO 7N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N51W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA...
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
10N18W TO 8N22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 36W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS SE
ACROSS THE GULF TO W TIP OF CUBA GIVING THE GULF N TO E FLOW
ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND TO NE
FLORIDA SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. THIS FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N
BETWEEN 87W-91W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SE LOUISIANA. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA TO OVER THE
GULF. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE MOVED INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
21N E OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 26N SAT
THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 77W-80W AND N OF 21N BETWEEN 81W-85W. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-85W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND THE GULF OF GONAVE INCLUDING A PORTION OF HAITI.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE OFF
HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W TO
OVER HISPANIOLA LATE FRI THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF THESE STORMS LINGERING LATER INTO
THE EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER NE FLORIDA
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS
FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE W ATLC NW OF LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N75W. THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 29N BETWEEN 73W-80W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LARGE UPPER LOW
IS IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N51W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH SW
TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB W OF THE AZORES AND A WEAKER 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N45W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT S
TO NEAR 26N EARLY MON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA. THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW TO N TO OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST BY FRI EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE IN A N
TO NE DIRECTION REACHING FROM THE NEWLY DEVELOP LOW NEAR 30N70W
POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO 27N79W BY SAT MORNING. BY SAT
EVENING THE TROUGH LOW...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD
BE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR OR JUST N OF 31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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