[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING
CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
EXTENDS FROM 23N21W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N22W TO
11N22W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVE SW TO 16N26W IN 24 HOURS
WITH THE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W TO
GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 18N22W 10N30W
07N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 06N57W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
10W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WITH
MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WATER AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING W AT 12 KTS. A 1017
MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W
PROVIDING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMD ARE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE
E OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS TO
ADVECT OVER FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA WITH
CONVECTION MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA ...
JAMAICA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF HISPANIOLA. FURTHER S
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-
12N BETWEEN 73W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MORE CONVECTION
IS LIKELY FROM A SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
THAT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS.
SEE ABOVE. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
36N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 60W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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