[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 2N14W EXTENDING
TO THE EQUATOR AT 20W AND ALONG THE AXIS TO 38W WHERE IT DIPS S
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING
FROM A 1019 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA. MOSTLY SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...AN AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS POPPED UP NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED AT 1500 UTC ALONG 30N88W TO 27N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE AXIS.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO TO THE S FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 86W-89W. AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF TEXAS HAS NOW MOVED TOWARDS THE COAST AND
THE IMMEDIATE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 95W-98W. THIS
AREA OF ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF BASIN
AROUND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A FEW
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF TO
MOVE NW AND DISSIPATE WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY DRY
AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO HONDURAS WHERE PATCHES
OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT AND ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ARE CAUSING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PANAMA COAST SUPPORTING
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. STATIONS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE
TO REPORT DUST THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
27N67W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND TO NEAR 31N37W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 18N51W WHERE IT BECOMES
DISSIPATING TO 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THE AXIS N OF 20N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE THE AXIS S OF 20N. TO THE E...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 29N SUPPORTS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N26W...WHICH IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NE NEAR 38N15W SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW JUST SW OF
PORTUGAL...BUT IT IS NOT IMPACTING THE DISCUSSION AREA. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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