[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST LIBERIA
AT 6N10W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W ALONG 3N26W TO
THE EQUATOR AND 41W TO EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-24W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
33W-39W...AND BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM A
1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. MOSTLY SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO LOUISIANA. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE LIKELY ADVECTED WWD TO
NWWD AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH AXIS
ALONG 92W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH IS
HELPING SUPPORT FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY DRY
AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING
SOME SHOWERS INCLUDING COASTAL PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE COAST. THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING
SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE N OF THE AREA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ARE WHAT IS CAUSING SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME
OF THE SURFACE STATIONS ARE REPORTING DUST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE FAR W ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
31N75W. THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 52W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W ALONG 27N52W
21N64W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING AROUND THE SRN EXTEND OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 21N73W 23N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND ARE IMPACTING SOME OF
THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AN ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF
THE FRONT ALONG 29N48W 25N50W 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC ALONG 35W SUPPORTING A 1021 MB SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 32N29W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER E
ALONG 15W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 32N7W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 27N17W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N21W TO
26N25W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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