[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W TO 2N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N19W TO
1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 2W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5S
BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AT 25N89W MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF TAMPA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE NW AT
10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SE GULF AND S
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE IN THE W ATLANTIC WITH THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER W CUBA AT 23N80W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO  S
MEXICO AT 15N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM OF
THE TROUGH S OF 17N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
...E CUBA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS
...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N W OF 76W. A 1021 MB HIGH
IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W
TO 29N53W TO 30N60W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N46W TO 17N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N34W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG
DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF
27N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
32N70W TO W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N34W TO 27N45W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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