[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF
AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 3N13W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5S-2N W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO 27N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N94W.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TENNESSEE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS
EVENING...GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE BASINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N67W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN
APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF IS GENERATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA
PENINSULA EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE WRN ATLC WATERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF IT SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N45W TO
18N55W. DESPITE THE SURFACE FEATURE...THE CONVECTION IS MORE
ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS DISPLACED
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EAST FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
37W-46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING A
WEAK SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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