[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA
...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO
1N28W TO S OF THE EQUATOR CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N
BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IMPACTING THE N
CENTRAL GULF NEAR A SQUALL LINE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO S OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W WITHIN
90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND
THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90.5W TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N97.5W WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE FRONTAL
AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
DEGENERATED EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF AT
THE SURFACE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE UPPER LOW
HAS BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING WHICH HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER A PERSISTENT AREA IN THE N CENTRAL
GULF COAST AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN
IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAIR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO SKIM THE NORTHERN GULF AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GULF
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN W-SW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION
IS AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 16N. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN N OF
VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE
FLOW. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE ISLANDS
AND N OF VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS TO THE S OF THE HIGH AND IS
PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 57W-79W.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE HIGH AND
RIDGING. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N51W TO NEAR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE-E THIS WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE SETTLES TO THE SE. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E REACHING FROM 31N22W TO
27N33W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CLIP THE NE PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN.

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL N OF THE AREA. A SECOND
AND WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS TO THE S NEAR 31N55W.
MAINLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IS KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 33N17W TO
25N24W WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MENTIONED
ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH MAINLY W FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net