[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 43W AND
TO 01S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN
24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR 35N99W AND AS OF 22/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 28N90W TO 23N94W TO
20N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE
FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTH TO NEAR 23N91W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ALSO...MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO CONFIRMED BY AN
EARLIER 21/2314 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WEST OF THE FRONT...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A
WEAKENING TREND AS THE FRONT BECOMES SURFACE TROUGHING AND
FINALLY ABSORBED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC THAT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE BASIN UNDER
MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...THE
RESULT AT THE SURFACE THIS EVENING IS FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES AS NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW
PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E
OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 62W-70W...INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WITH
HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN EXPANSIVE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N67W AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN ATLC W OF 40W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THIS
AREA IS NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 50W-81W. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLIES WITH THE
MOST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 65W-77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N30W TO 27N50W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W TO 28N32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN S OF 27N E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N60W TO 21N24W WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
STRONG 90-120 KT JET ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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