[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W ALONG
1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
1S51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
AXIS ALONG 95W. MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN GULF AROUND
THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE NE CORNER TO SW CORNER OF THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE BASIN. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS CLEAR SKIES
BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF JAMAICA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS
AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS
HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 69W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS JUST E OF 68W FROM 27N66W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS FARTHER E ALONG 31N52W TO 27N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY E OF THE AXIS FROM N OF 25N BETWEEN
51W-55W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO BETWEEN THE TWO
TROUGHS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
INFLUENCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND PART OF THE ERN ATLC
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH
NEAR 41N22W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GOES-R SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY ALONG
WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE AN
AREA OF DUST OFF NW AFRICA EXTENDING TO 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 21W CAUSING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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