[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W ALONG
2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 37W TO 3S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO MISSISSIPPI.
UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR ERN GULF WITH AXIS DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...MAINLY SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 34N68W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N89W TO 16N93W...AS
OF 0300 UTC. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
BESIDES SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN GULF WHERE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NE AROUND THE W SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN TO
DRIFT WWD AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN HAS CLEAR SKIES BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER A FEW
OF THE ISLANDS INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND WRN CUBA...AS WELL AS
HONDURAS AND NRN NICARAGUA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR WRN ATLC
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 34N75W CONTINUING TOWARDS
THE NE. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
34N68W. SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ALL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST EXTENDS OVER THE ERN BAHAMAS ALONG
26N71W TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NRN
TIP OF THE TROUGH. THE SECOND TROUGH IS FARTHER ALONG 29N54W TO
22N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE AXIS FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN
60W-65W...AND E OF THE AXIS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 51W-54W. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 33N WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 33N WITH AXIS ALONG 49W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS E
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 36W SUPPORTING A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
34N46W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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