[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N11W TO
3N17W AND 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W TO 3N32W...
PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 5S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
PART OF THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES/
COMBINES WITH SEPARATE AND INDEPENDENT CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BECOME
CUT OFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN ON TOP OF FLORIDA AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 21N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO 25N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND
88W...AND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. RETURN SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1027 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W...THROUGH 31N88W TO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG 77W/78W AND
STRETCHING FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO 32N...HAS BECOME CUT OFF
FROM ITS SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 32N.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA...
COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI.
EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE IS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE REST OF NICARAGUA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOVING THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WESTWARD EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF
73W. THE WIND FLOW TO THE WEST OF 73W IS LARGELY NORTHEASTERLY.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...AS THE CLOUDS
REACH LAND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE FOR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 TO 13 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS SITUATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG 77W/78W AND
STRETCHING FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO 32N...HAS BECOME CUT OFF
FROM ITS SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND FLORIDA. ONE POSSIBLE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 27N74W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N72W 20N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC WAS 1.51 INCHES. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N72W 20N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W FROM 22N
TO 30N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W
FROM 25N TO 30N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 32N
BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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