[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
3N21W 2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER E MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS TO INLAND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVING THE GULF NW
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
15/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 23N92W INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 17N92W
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER.
THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS JUST E OF FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N
W OF 78W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
S OF 13N BETWEEN 57W-69W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W-80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF PANAMA AND
ALL OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO S MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG THE US EASTERN SEABOARD JUST OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST TO ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 15/0900 UTC ALONG
79W FROM 23N-27N AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
72W-78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E OF
BERMUDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W TO NEAR 24N51W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N39W TO
29N40W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N50W TO 22N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 44W AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E
OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SE OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON. W ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT W TODAY THEN DISSIPATING TONIGHT. CENTRAL ATLC
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W CROSSING 65W LATE SAT THEN STALLING
SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net