[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N12W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 26W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 10W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-1S BETWEEN
22W-25W...AND FROM 6S-1S BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING WITH AXIS ALONG 86W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CURRENTLY ENTERING NEBRASKA IS
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WRN GULF. AS OF 2100
UTC...THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM ERN TEXAS AT 30N95W
TO 22N96W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH INTO MEXICO
NEAR 17N93W. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG THE FRONT AXIS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC. E-SE SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE
AROUND THE RIDGE. A SWATH OF MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE NW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE BASIN
MAINTAINING E-SE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT IS SINKING S ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO N OF COLOMBIA. THE DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES THE SE CORNER WHERE MOISTURE IS
BEING DRAWN AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E OF 70W INCLUDING
THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS
SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 37N75W...AND A 1034
MB HIGH NEAR 40N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E ALONG 57W
SUPPORTS A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR THE DISCUSSION BORDER AT
31N54W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NRN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG
26N57W...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. THE MAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FARTHER E UNDER THE AREA OF STRONGEST
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF 24N BETWEEN 47W-52W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
40W SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE E ATLC AROUND A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC
ALONG 22W SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WRN AFRICA. THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALONG WITH GOES-R ENHANCEMENTS
REVEAL AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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