[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING ALONG 3N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 27W THEN
TURNS S OF THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N13W TO 1N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER NE FLORIDA. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10/0300 UTC NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE TO CEDAR KEY TO
28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N94W THEN S ALONG
22N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF
93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE FRONT E OF 93W AND W OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT S OF 25N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE
TEXAS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TO INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA AS WARM FRONT LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA DOMINATING MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 16N BETWEEN 59W-68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WHICH ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
18N W OF 84W. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL BUT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AT 10/0300
UTC NEAR 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
SAINT AUGUSTINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 29N80W TO 26N81W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO
BEYOND BERMUDA BEING AMPLIFIED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N58W ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N63W TO 23N64W.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 55W-63W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. HOWEVER...A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N26W TO 27N30W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS
IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N39W TO 24N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BETWEEN
THE W AND E ATLC FRONTS BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 35N48W. A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N43W COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-65W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL
SHIFT E ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY. COLD FRONT IN THE W
ATLC WILL REACH 32N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND FROM
32N60W TO 27N80W EARLY SUN THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE
SUN. NEW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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