[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W TO 3S29W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7S-2S BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS TEXAS HAS MOVED
INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER AT
30N94W TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AT 26N98W CONTINUING IN TO
MEXICO. MOST OF THE STRONGEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS INLAND EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS
AS WELL AS OVER SE LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
MOSTLY DRY AIR BESIDES THE EXTREME NRN GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER SUPPORTS THE FRONT WITH
THE LONGWAVE LINGERED BACK OVER THE SW CONUS. MAINLY SE-S
SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS COVERS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR STRONGER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING AND SLOWLY
RETREATING BACK TOWARDS THE NW. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. AT
THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 14N E OF 67W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST
OFFSHORE THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 36N52W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN BESIDES AN AREA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 56W-65W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
33N61W TO HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY
A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N31W TO 28N35W. THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 28N35W
ALONG 24N47W 24N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 34W TO THE N OF 27N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE SHEAR AXIS ALONG 27N33W TO 22N36W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 18W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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