[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W
ALONG 3N30W 2N40W 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
THE ERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH E OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N72W. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR BESIDES SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT STRONG E-SE FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE ERN HALF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEARLY DISSIPATED SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 17N86W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS AND WITHIN 200
NM N OF THE AXIS. THE SHEARLINE IS THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS IN THE W ATLC. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 67W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES BESIDES
THE AREA NOTED IN THE NW CORNER. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT THE SHEAR AXIS TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE W ATLC AROUND A
1038 MB HIGH E OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 71W CONTINUING INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 31N54W TO 27N61W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEARLINE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N70W
25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS E
OF 62W...AND WITHIN 120 N OF THE AXIS W OF 62W. A PATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 71W-72W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 35N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FARTHER E NEAR
30N35W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N36W TO 25N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 230 NM E OF THE AXIS. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CONNECTED TO THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS TOWARDS THE SW TO
14N53W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 4N25W. A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE NE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO NW AFRICA IN THE AREA OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net