[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
13N16W CONTINUING SW TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N23W TO
1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN
25W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN
32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH S OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE
HIGH WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING RADIALLY FROM THE CENTER
REACHING 20 KTS IN THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG
99W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BASIN...WHICH ARE HELPING SUPPORT CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BESIDES A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE SW GULF. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MERGE WITH A
HIGH TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEAR AXIS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO NRN HONDURAS AT 15N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
200 NM NW OF THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS
JAMAICA. BESIDES MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS HELPING
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES SOME LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS
IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN
STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY FRONT HAS BECOME
STATIONARY AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING
TO 24N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR AXIS TO ERN CUBA AT
22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SHEAR AXIS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N69W
TO 29N80W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE AXIS. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N44W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE NE
TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE S OF
THE AZORES CENTERED NEAR 31N30W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 29W-32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 7N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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