[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
EQUATOR AND 06W TO 04N12W AND FROM 01N-04 BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
29N92W AND IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE SE
GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE AND MERGE WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING
E-SE TO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE...REMAINING
RELATIVELY STRONG...WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG E-SE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AND SUPPORTS A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A
SHEAR LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 16N87W IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS CONVECTIVE PUNCH THE
LAST 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-88W. THE OTHER IMPACT WHICH
IS FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS INCREASED E TO NE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD FROM OVER THE MID-ATLC
STATES TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N62W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO EASTERN
CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE
FRONT...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 30N69W AND IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS HOWEVER EMERGING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. AND USHERING IN ANOTHER BATCH OF STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 30N. WINDS OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS BY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N44W IS PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20
KT E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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