[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W THEN TO 03S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W SW ALONG 28N90W
TO 26N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 26N. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE IMPACT...STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING S OF 26N WEST
OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS
EAST OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND DIVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS
FROM TEXAS KEEPING N-NE WINDS STRONG THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N67W TO BEYOND 20N74W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONVECTIVELY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG WITH THE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIA
COAST. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 30N W OF 75W OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDES THE FRONT
AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 04/1200 UTC...SUNDAY
MORNING. EAST OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 36N12W TO 32N23W TO 27N50W THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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