[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0535 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS TROPICAL AFRICA AND EXITS
THE WEST COAST THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING SW TO
NEAR 3N18W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING WSW ALONG
EQ26W 2S34W EQ42W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ W OF 25W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN AND NW AREAS. AT SURFACE...LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE ERN AND SE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
ERN CONUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
THIS FRONT REMAINS INLAND ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF DURING THE NEXT 9
HOURS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF FRONT GENERATING
SEAS FROM 8 TO 12 FT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR JUST
A VERY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT OBSERVED OVER THE ERN BASIN E OF 70W. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALED THIS FLOW INCREASES UP TO 30 KT BETWEEN
70W-80W S OF 17N. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W...SUPPORTING A WEAK
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N61W. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMPOSED OF MULTIPLE LOWS AND SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IS ANALYZED
OVER THE WRN...CENTRAL...AND N-ERN ATLC BASINS N OF OUR
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT THIS SET OF BOUNDARIES AND LOWS.
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION AND GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THESE
FEATURES REMAIN N OF THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 47W-53W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC BASINS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AND
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER MADEIRA
ISLAND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN ATLC
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-32 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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