[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311909 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2012

***** GALE WARNING ADDED TO CARIBBEAN DISCUSSION *****

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MOST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA. A SMALL
PORTION OF IT ENTERS THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W QUICKLY ENDING AT 4N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 2N30W 3N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130-170 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF 30W. ISOLATED
WEAK CONVECTION IS MOSTLY WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED IN THE WRN ATLC
EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE GULF...PROVIDING
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 85W-88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TEXAS
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND N
CENTRAL GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFTING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 92W. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING SE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
GULF...GUSTING TO 25 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A FEW
REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THIS REGION AS WELL FROM THE
PREVIOUS OLD BOUNDARY ANALYZED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERATING AN EASTERLY WIND FIELD OF
15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA. A RECENT SCAN FROM POLAR ORBITING
SATELLITE DEPICTED THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NRN
COLOMBIA GUSTING TO GALE FORCE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W...
GENERATING SEAS 10-15 FEET IN THIS REGION. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT
28 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FLOW...SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAIRLY STRONG 1032 MB HIGH IS MOVING OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE CAROLINAS...KEEPING RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
W OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N55W SW TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THIS FEATURE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN ATLC DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION TO WEST AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net