[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 2N30W TO BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR
30N88W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A SQUALL LINE IS JUST E
OF THE FRONT FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 24N90W. RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTS NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
SQUALL LINE. 15-20 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT.
15-20 KT SRN RETURN FLOW IS E OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF
16N. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO SE OF THE SQUALL LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S AND
70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH AND FAIR WEATHER TO THEN BE OVER THE NW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA N OF 16N TO INCLUDE N GUATEMALA AND BELIZE DUE TO
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA ...AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
LIGHTEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N56W TO 31N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N39W TO 24N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N21W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION...AND FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TROUGH TO MOVE MOVE E TO 32N36W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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