[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242313
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO
5N33W TO 2N45W TO BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
34W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO....
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N34W TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO HOUSTON TEXAS AT 29N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER S OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND IN THE
80'S OVER CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE
OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE N OVER
THE N GULF STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT TO COME OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AFTERNOON WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SE
SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR AND WARM WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
S OF JAMAICA MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N67W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W
TO 25N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 35W-39W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
39N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO SW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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