[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 6N20W
TO 2N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 13W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 29W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ONLY 10-15 KT NE WINDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
RETROGRADE BACK N TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD DUE TO A SHEAR AXIS. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA
...AND INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N45W TO 25N46W. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N42W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N41W
16N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 36W-40W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 40N25W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA









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