[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 6N16W
ALONG 2N29W 1N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-15W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST AT 22/2100 UTC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF EARLY ON MON. THIS SCENARIO IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N
W OF 90W WITH PATCHES OF FOG/HAZE BEING REPORTED. A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO NEAR 26N90W WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W
GULF W OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF EARLY MON AND
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE N GULF THROUGH TUE. SE RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT THEN WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE THU EVENING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 20N.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
USHER IN LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS BUT GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 NEAR
28N75W WHICH IS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E AND A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W
ATLC. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 32N72W TO 24N72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N70W 27N70W TO JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 23N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
200/225 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N47W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW N OF THE AREA
NEAR 34N44W ALONG 30N41W 22N42W TO 16N45W AND A PAIR FOR SURFACE
TROUGHS TO THE W...ONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW ALONG
25N47W TO 22N54W AND THE SECOND EXTENDING E/W FROM 27N48W 26N53W
TO 28N57W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 36W-49W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 175
NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC N OF 17N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF GEORGIA COAST EARLY TUE AND STALL
OFF THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC WED THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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