[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N18W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 2N30W TO 3N36W...CURVING
THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL
NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 4N BETWEEN 43W AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM
9N98W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 30N108W IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE SPANS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
UNTIL THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG 23N/24N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WIND FLOW ULTIMATELY COMES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AFFECTING THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTH AMERICA AND 100W.
RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE
AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS MOVING TOWARD A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN CLUSTERS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR CLOUD LINES FROM SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND
FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N61W 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO
28N63W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N61W 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 24N76W TO 23N80W IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO 24N88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
66W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 26N47W 19N49W 13N53W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W 20N45W
TO 13N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N24W 21N30W 6N31W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net