[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 5N10W TO
9N15W TO 6N20W TO 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N49W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 1W-9W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR
29N88W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF
AROUND THE HIGH WHILE 15-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE S
GULF S OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 21N96W
TO 18N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF AND MEXICO S OF 26N BETWEEN
94W-100W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER MOST OF THE
GULF WHILE RADIATION COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LOWERED
TEMPERATURES TO THE 30'S OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SW FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH A 110-130 KT
JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE
GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
HIGH TO MOVE NE TO VIRGINIA WITH E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE
GULF. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS RECENTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
AND YUCATAN PENINSULA HOWEVER A BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 82W-90W.
ELSEWHERE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND A
1020 MB ISOBAR N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF
NICARAGUA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO
INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO
REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO E CUBA AT
21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE
1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N32W.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N28W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS TOGETHER WITH A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO W
AFRICA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 30N56W TO E
CUBA WITH LIGHT CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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