[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W
ALONG 3N25W 1N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROF AXIS
BETWEEN 12W-19W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED
INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE
GULF EXTENDING AT 13/2100 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N81W TO JUST N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 21N91W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF. DENSE LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF
FROM 21N-28N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND S OF 21N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER S
MEXICO. THE N GULF COAST W OF PANAMA CITY AND N OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH AT 13/2100 UTC OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR
29N95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT
THEN SHIFT E SUN AND MON WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NW GULF LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ENTIRE
BASIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 18N W OF 80W
TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 12N-17N E OF 73W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE W ATLC WILL MERGE
AND WILL SAG SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT THEN STALL AND
BECOME DIFFUSE FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUN NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY NE OF THE LEEWARDS MON AND
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS NEAR 25N81W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AT 13/2100 UTC
EXTENDS FROM A COLD OVER BERMUDA TO 31N67W CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF
THE ABOVE COLD FRONT TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E
ATLC TO 15N E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N16W 23N17W OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO MADEIRA ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL OVERTAKE THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT AND REACH
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING...FROM 32N60W TO E
CUBA SUN MORNING THEN BECOMING STATIONARY NE OF THE LEEWARDS MON
AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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