[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N18W TO 03N28W TO 02N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE BASIN OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E-SE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AND DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE
MONDAY. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N98W. THIS RIDGE IS
HOLDING A STATIONARY FRONT...ANALYZED ACROSS SE TEXAS...IN PLACE
INLAND ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED
ON SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AS WINDS
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N
OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
BY EARLY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT AND
STRONG N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN
THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ONLY SWATH OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR AND
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20
KT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N84W TO 19N72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WEST OF
46W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
37N50W AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TAMPA BAY REGION. A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 32N72W TO 29N76W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 67W-72W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 40W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N39W TO 30N40W TO 25N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 34W AND THE FRONT. A PAIR OF PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT...ONE
FROM 22N32W TO 29N33W AND THE OTHER FROM 19N44W TO 25N40W. BOTH
BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 28W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 47N13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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