[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N10W TO
03N20W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 47W-52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 04N50W TO 09N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N99W
WHICH IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NE
MEXICO AND THE NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N98W TO 30N94W. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE EASTWARD BY LATE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W AND CONTINUES
SW ALONG 16N70W TO 14N78W TO 10N81W. NE TRADES REMAIN STRONG IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 65W TO A BASE NEAR 30N. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A FORMING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N70W TO 29N74W.
THIS FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
COMMENCE MOVEMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 25N60W TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE
EASTWARD TO 68W AND IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED
NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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