[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N14W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W TO 3N30W TO 5N45W TO BRAZIL NEAR
2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 2W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MISSISSIPPI TO S
TEXAS...BASICALLY DIFFERENTIATING A MARINE LAYER WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF THAN INLAND. A 1028 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE GULF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W TO
TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO 27N85W WITH FAIR WEATHER. ALSO
EXPECT THE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
OVER THE W GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N64W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 16N70W 13N78W 10N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 75W. BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH  STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE TO A SHEAR LINE.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN
52W-57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
W OF THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N16W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF
50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 30W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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