[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO
03N20W TO 03N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE THE GULF BASIN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM NW LOUISIANA W-SW TO THE BULK OF THE TROUGH'S ENERGY OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N107W. A COLD FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS A ROBUST 1028 MB HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. THE
HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W AND CONTINUES
SW TO 15N70W TO 14N75W. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH EARLIER ASCAT PASSES REVEALING THAT
SOMEWHAT STRONGER NE WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT E OF 73W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 19N73W TO 12N84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 43N54W TO 29N59W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 25N60W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N66W AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE EXITING TROUGH S OF 26N AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
OFF THE EASTERN CONUS CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND COMMENCE
MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE
EASTWARD TO 65W AND IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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