[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 3N/4N
TO 4N9W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N9W TO 5N18W 2N25W AND 2N35W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
BETWEEN 24W AND 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 18N63W NEAR
ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
17N75W...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND TO THE WEST
OF 90W...SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS INLAND...FROM AN EASTERN GEORGIA 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF
THE 30N93W 26N97W COLD FRONT. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE 48 HOUR POINT IN THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
AT 48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG 30N85W 25N95W 20N96W. EXPECT
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE
WEST OF 95W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 24N55W. THE REST
OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR THE
TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...TOWARD A SECOND
TROUGH. THE SECOND TROUGH COMES FROM THE 23N33W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THAT TROUGH EVENTUALLY REACHES 10N59W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
TO 25N60W 21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N77W
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 29N51W...PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N54W 23N62W 20N67W...AND INTO THE AREA
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN
67W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.
THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING
AT 31/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.96 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT A GALE WARNING WITH THE 31N51W 25N60W 20N72W
COLD FRONT. EXPECT 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 15 TO 22 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 10 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND 65W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 15 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...EXPECT
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N WITHIN 420 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 45W EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 18N63W NEAR
ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 17N75W...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N54W 23N62W 20N67W...AND INTO THE
AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN
67W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.
THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING
AT 31/1200 UTC FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
WAS 0.59 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
EASTERN PANAMA AND WESTERN PANAMA ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF 70W...MOSTLY WITH THE LARGE-SCALE SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. THIS WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO AT LEAST NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N BETWEEN
84W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N
TO THE EAST OF 70W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N27W TO
28N31W...TO A 23N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N38W
13N47W 11N54W...AND 10N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG
31N44W 26N48W 21N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N56W 24N47W 32N37W...AND
FROM 8N IN VENEZUELA TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W IN VENEZUELA.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB
EASTERN GEORGIA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N69W AND 25N62W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N22W TO 30N31W 26N36W
22N41W AND 17N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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