[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N25W
3N38W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N
OF 3N TO INLAND OVER THE IVORY COAST AND LIBERIA BETWEEN
6W-10W...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN
12W-38W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SE CONUS AND
INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF JUST S OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N80 TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
CANCUN TO OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
GULF TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN
80W-86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N TO JUST INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN
83W-87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN THU.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH MON WITH SEAS BUILDING THROUGH SAT THEN
SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE SE CONUS
INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 30N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 27/0300 UTC NEAR 32N76W ACROSS
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AN W OF 80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF 28N BETWEEN
71W-74W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W OF
55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N61W. A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
33N43W TO 25N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 15N W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU EVENING THEN
WEAKEN FROM 32N59W TO E CUBA FRI. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF FLORIDA SAT AND EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO S FLORIDA SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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