[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 4N30W TO 1N400W TO NE
BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5-11N
BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 32N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT
29N93W TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 28N. MOBILE ALABAMA IS REPORTING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A
STRONG SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE GULF...SE OF FRONT...10-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR 35N93W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE NW GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...TOGETHER WITH 20-25 KT NW
SURFACE WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W ESPECIALLY OVER TRINIDAD. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 11N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N49W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE AT 20N67W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN
45W-49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N29W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N GUYANA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 55W-60W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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