[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N23W
2N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
17W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST TO OVER THE E CONUS
ALONG 89W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE GULF TO 24N93W. THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT
STREAMING E ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE AREA ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NW GULF LATE TUE AFTERNOON
AND EXTEND FROM THE SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TUE
EVENING THEN FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND
EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
78W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE CONFLUENCE OF THE UPPER FLOW AND
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N75W ALONG 13N81W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR NEAR THE BORDER. THE SAME EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM 18N68W TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A
MODERATE BREEZE LATE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE. A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 30N WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N55W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR
23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N59W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N E OF THE
ABOVE FRONT TO 15N ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N32W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N10W TO JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
NEAR 27N15W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E ALONG
31N. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE
WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA WED EVENING
FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU EVENING AND FROM 32N62W TO
22N77W FRI EVENING AS A DISSIPATING FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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