[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231821 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

CORRECTED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA INFORMATION ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W TO 6N17W 4N30W
AND 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N
IN GUYANA TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO ALONG 100W.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 100W MEXICO RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT ALREADY HAS
MOVED THROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR THE APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 21N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 16N69W 12N76W...AND TO COASTAL PANAMA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BEYOND MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM
20N65W...TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 15N70W 11N78W...TO THE
PANAMA COAST ALONG 81W/82W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N65W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N65W 20N70W...INTO
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N68W 13N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N70W. THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE
TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC FOR CURACAO...ACCORDING
TO THE BULLETIN...MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.77 OF AN INCH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 71W. OTHER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 18N68W
16N75W 15N83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN WESTERN COASTAL PANAMA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 18N68W 16N75W 15N83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...AS INITIAL
CONDITIONS...TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N63W 24N67W
20N68W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 27N60W TO 23N65W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N56W 27N70W 23N65W
20N70W...INTO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO THE APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N48W TO 20N52W.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO A 27N26W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N28W AND 9N35W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N28W 24N29W
AND 21N35W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N35W TO 19N40W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF MOROCCO AND
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 22N26W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE 31N58W 20N70W COLD
FRONT...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 75W
TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AND
ELSEWHERE TO 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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