[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXITS LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W...THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD TO
4N20W TO 5N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER S TEXAS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO
W OF 96W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF GOING AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NE
GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT RETURN
FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE NE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. 20-25 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE...
HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. FINALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND  COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS... FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO DRIFT E AND CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. 20-30 KT NW WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N59W.
FURTHER E...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N30W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N31W TO 20N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
SURINAME FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 50W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING BOTH FRONTS. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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