[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 7N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N15W
4N34W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N3W TO 2N9W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO 29N ACROSS THE N GULF
SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 21/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF OVER NE FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY CONTINUING
ALONG 24N87W 21N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR
17N94W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N TO OVER FLORIDA. STRONG N WINDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF. THESE
WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 23N W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER
TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY MIDDAY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W GULF INTO FRI MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM
E CUBA TO NICARAGUA WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF
75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 14. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N84W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN
84W-88W AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE N OF CARIBBEAN PASSES EASTWARD ACROSS W ATLC. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MIDDAY FRI REACHING
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY SUN BEFORE
DISSIPATING MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS AT
21/0300 UTC IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA CROSSING FLORIDA JUST
W OF JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS PRECEDE THE FRONT AND ARE W
OF A LINE FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIA TO BEYOND 32N77W. A UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W OVER THE
W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N73W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N70W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN
35W-60W SUPPORTING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W CONTINUING ALONG 24N50W TO 21N60W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 21N. GALE FORCE WINDS A
BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N E OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF N MOROCCO. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA
FRI EVENING AND FROM 32N59W 26N65W TO E CUBA SAT EVENING THEN
WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 30N LATE
TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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