[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA...BUT IT DOES NOT REACH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W TO 4N25W TO 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...
TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND
19W AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N BETWEEN
10W AND 12W AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THIS
TIME. ONE COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
SWEEPING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
23N. THESE CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER
BERMUDA...TO 31N70W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO WESTERN CUBA
NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 17N62W
13N70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 17N62W 13N70W LINE. SOME
OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS RESIDUAL FLOW THAT IS RELATED
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS RELATED MORE
TO RESIDUAL WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BROAD AND
GENTLE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 13N TO 19N...WITH
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N77W IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA...TO 5N81W 9N85W AND BEYOND 7N90W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE REACHING AND/OR
HAVE BEEN REACHING PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N55W TO 18N57W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A FIRST SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N50W TO 28N55W
26N57W 25N60W 24N61W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N70W 27N63W
27N55W BEYOND 32N47W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 32N37W TO 28N43W
24N48W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N51W
TO 19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N37W
26N43W 24N45W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N48W 13N53W 10N55W 6N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N42W 18N46W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM COASTAL GUYANA TO 12N
BETWEEN 58W AND 61W NEAR TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA.

A SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER
BERMUDA...TO 31N70W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO WESTERN CUBA
NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N8W IN EASTERN MAURITANIA
TO 15N17W IN COASTAL SENEGAL...TO 7N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N18W JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO 29N27W 26N32W 17N39W AND 8N49W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...20 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N51W 23N46W 16N35W...20 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 28N55W
24N60W SURFACE TROUGH...AND WITHIN 36 HOURS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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