[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC
STARTING AT THE COAST NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N24W 5N39W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 40W. NUMEROUS/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-34W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 34W-40W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N
BETWEEN 14W-19W AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 7N BETWEEN 40W-45W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N50W TO
3N49W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO/E BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
NW GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 95W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE
NW GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E OF AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT. FRONT REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
SW GULF OF MEXICO MON FROM TAMPA TO EA BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND
MOVE SE OF GULF WED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. NE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 14N W OF 80W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY WED THEN INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED
AND THU AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 32N53W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG 25N59W TO 22N66W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E OVER THE W ATLC IN W OF THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
30N44W ALONG 26N49W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 21N51W CONTINUING
ALONG 17N51W TO 15N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A
LINE FROM 22N45W TO BEYOND 32N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N20W.
W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM
32N73W TO N BAHAMAS TUE AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AND WED.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE
THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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