[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 5N18W 6N30W 5N36W
2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N
BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 51W AND
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...INTO
SOUTH TEXAS...AND WESTWARD TO 30N107W IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N91W AT THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO 23N98W AT THE MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
84W AND 86W TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N92W IN LOUISIANA TO 26N96W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WIND AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...FROM 22N TO 24N
TO THE WEST OF 96W. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE RELATED
TO THE COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N91W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF 84W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA BETWEEN 73W AND 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TOWARD
THE GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN EASTERN HONDURAS...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 17N84W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N46W TO 30N64W 29N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N91W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W
IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING PERIODICALLY FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
80W AND 85W IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N TO THE EAST
OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS
SITUATION INCLUDES 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIA
COAST...STARTING AS AN INITIAL CONDITION. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 81W
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N31W 22N43W...
TO 16N53W AND 14N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS NEAR 31N27W TO 26N30W AND 22N32W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N32W TO 18N40W 15N46W 13N54W
AND 12N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR AXIS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N52W 11N55W 8N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 62W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 51W AND
55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N46W TO 30N64W 29N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N91W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W...ABOUT 95 NM TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 6N26W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 62W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
BETWEEN 62W AND 69W...EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS IN NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY SWELL TO THE NORTH
OF 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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