[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 06N34W TO 08N44W TO 07N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 22W-35W...AND FROM 08N-12N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW GULF REGION
AND NORTH-CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING S-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NW OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO 30N87W AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS REMAIN INLAND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-89W
IN THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N78W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE BASIN BETWEEN 60W-90W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 78W-84W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W. FARTHER NORTH...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 79W-84W...AND N OF 21N IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN STRONG DUE
TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING N OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA WHICH REMAINS EAST OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N-32N ALONG 80W. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 29N/30N ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM
32N36W TO 14N61W THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM
FROM 32N27W TO 29N30W TO 24N30W TO 22N34W THAT BECOMES A SHEAR
LINE SW TO 10N60W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO FOCUSED ALONG AND
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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