[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 30N46W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N43W...TO 21N42W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW CENTER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TODAY...BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM...IF IT IS NECESSARY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 32W AND 47W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WITHIN
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N34W 28N38W BEYOND 32N42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W
AND 5N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 7N32W 6N40W...TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N47W...TO COASTAL
GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IN COASTAL PLAINS FROM 6N10W IN LIBERIA TO 9N13W IN THE COASTAL
BORDER AREA OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W...AND FROM
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 9.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER
AREA OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W...TO 26N85W IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N89W 24N89W 22N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 77W IN THE BAHAMAS AND 90W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 90 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO MIAMI
FLORIDA. EXPECT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO COVER THE AREA STARTING
24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...TO 26N93W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA...BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 87W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N81W ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA
SIDE OF CUBA...TO 18N81W AND 15N83W. THIS TROUGH IS UNDERNEATH
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PART OF LARGER-SCALE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
13N60W 13N65W 12N75W 12N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 8N77W...THROUGH 8N81W IN SOUTHERN
PANAMA...BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N IN COLOMBIA TO 12N
BETWEEN 73W/74W IN COLOMBIA AND 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE FORECAST IN 48 HOURS...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 19N
TO THE EAST OF 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 39N26W...TO 32N27W TO 25N24W AND 20N22W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N70W...THROUGH 33N75W...BEYOND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
35N51W TO 32N49W TO 30N49W TO 25N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N49W TO 31N50W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 31N50W TO
26N60W 24N69W TO 23N74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 55W AND 76W IN THE BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WITH A 31N46W 25N43W 21N42W SURFACE TROUGH...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 31N50W 26N60W
24N70W 22N78W SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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